Lead:
A new opinion piece argues that Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric on climate change could create an opening for other powers to lead the global response. Writing in the Guardian, policy analyst Francesco Grillo says Trump called the climate crisis “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” in remarks to the UN last month and has announced plans to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement. Grillo contends that Europe and Brazil now have a rare chance to shape the agenda at COP30 and, in his words, “sketch out the blueprint of a possible new world order without the US.” His argument highlights a wider question: if Washington steps back, can others drive credible climate action?
Context and timing:
The Guardian published Grillo’s op-ed on 13 October 2025. He frames the claim about Trump’s UN remarks as a pivotal moment ahead of COP30, which Brazil will host in Belém in November 2025. The Paris climate agreement was adopted in 2015, and the United States has shifted course before: it left the pact in 2020 and rejoined in 2021. Grillo’s essay places the latest reported US shift within that history and points to the next UN climate summit as a test of global leadership.
What the op-ed claims about US climate policy and why that matters
Grillo writes that Trump rejected the international scientific consensus, telling the UN that the climate crisis is a “con job.” He also says Trump announced a fresh US withdrawal from the Paris agreement. The op-ed presents this as both a rupture and an opening. It argues that if the US lowers its ambition, others can define the rules of the next phase of decarbonisation. Grillo lists countries that signed but did not ratify the Paris deal and places the US alongside them under Trump.
The United States plays a central role in climate finance, technology and diplomacy. Any retreat from the Paris framework would have practical effects: it could slow US federal action, unsettle markets, and test alliances. At the same time, it could galvanise other blocs. Grillo’s core claim rests on that second effect. “Paradoxically,” he writes, a US reversal “provides an opportunity for others to advance the climate agenda.” The argument mirrors previous cycles, where one actor’s exit spurred others to step forward.
Europe’s climate toolbox and scope to set the pace
Europe has built a far-reaching policy package that can operate even if US policy shifts. The European Green Deal sets a binding target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. The “Fit for 55” laws cover energy, transport, buildings, industry and land use. They include a higher carbon price within the EU Emissions Trading System and tighter standards for cars and power generation.
The EU also launched a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It phases in reporting for emissions embedded in imports such as steel, cement and fertilisers, ahead of financial adjustments from 2026. That tool gives Brussels leverage: it links access to Europe’s market with cleaner production. Grillo’s thesis suggests Europe can use CBAM, green finance rules and large-scale investment to anchor climate alignment. In practice, that would mean deeper ties with countries that adopt strong climate policies and more pressure on those that do not.
Brazil’s COP30 stage and Amazon-focused diplomacy
Brazil will host COP30 in Belém, in the Amazon region. That location sends a message. The Amazon shapes global climate stability, and Brazil’s approach carries regional and international weight. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2030 and to restore Brazil’s climate credibility after years of rising forest loss. Hosting the summit gives Brasília a platform to push forest finance, sustainable development and energy transition plans across Latin America and beyond.
Grillo points to Brazil’s role as co-author of a new climate coalition if the US steps back. Brazil can pair its Amazon agenda with proposals on food systems, bioeconomy and just transition. It can also broker cooperation among emerging economies. If Europe provides market access and standards, and Brazil provides a compelling development model linked to nature protection, the two could set a practical path that others can follow. That is the pivot the op-ed urges.
Science, evidence and the policy stakes at COP30
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the planet has warmed by about 1.1°C since pre-industrial times. Scientists link warming with more frequent and intense heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts. Those impacts raise risks for food security, water systems, health and infrastructure. Grillo’s op-ed counters Trump’s reported comments by pointing to empirical evidence that people can “check daily with a basic thermometer.” While the phrase simplifies complex science, the core point stands: temperature records and observed extremes underpin the case for action.
COP30 matters because countries must align their next round of national climate plans with the Paris goal to limit warming to well below 2°C, and pursue 1.5°C. Stronger plans need finance, technology and credible policies at home. If the US reduces its engagement, Europe and Brazil could still push for measurable gains: methane cuts, deforestation reductions, clean power targets